2023 IHSA playoffs: Steve Soucie’s Class 5A first-round analysis

Prairie Ridge's Jack Finn scores a touchdown during a Fox Valley Conference football game against Crystal Lake Central on Friday, Oct. 13, 2023, at Prairie Ridge High School in Crystal Lake.

Class 5A looks a lot different on paper than most are accustomed and the defending champion had to sneak into the field as a four-win team.

Nazareth started 0-4, won four straight and lost to St. Francis to in Week 9 to put its fate in the hands of the numbers, which worked to its favor.

Other huge threats are teams that haven’t recently been in 5A as an enrollment dip dropped typical 6A power Prairie Ridge to 5A and Joliet Catholic had its multiplier restored and the Hilltoppers head up to the 5A classification because of it.

First-round matchups

Payton vs. Sterling: A top-seed in name only, Payton will have a hard time translating the success it had in one of the lower rungs of the Chicago Public League. Sterling enters the draw with just a 4-5 record but its still a dangerous program with some postseason pedigree that knows how to win games this time of year.

Pick: Sterling

Wheaton St. Francis vs. Rochelle: Another really dynamic eighth seed vs. ninth seed contest. St. Francis’ transition into the rugged CCL/ESCC was quite the success story for the Spartans who pulled out several thrilling wins and now heads into the postseason battle tested. Rochelle’s two losses came at the hands of a pair of 8-1 teams and the Hubs are more than capable of making noise here.

Pick: Wheaton St. Francis

Morgan Park vs. Corliss: Of the 24 Chicago Public League entrants in the IHSA playoffs, Morgan Park is likely one of a small handful that might actually be able to do some real damage in the playoffs. The Mustangs’ lone loss was a nonconference one with Mount Carmel where they were competitive. Corliss started 4-1, but limped to the finish with three losses to playoff bound CPL squads.

Pick: Morgan Park

Sycamore vs. Evergreen Park: Sycamore will look to rebound quickly from its first loss of the season to Morris in Week 9 and the Spartans have a long history of being a dangerous team to draw in the 5A tournament to protect. Evergreen Park appeared to be on a bit of a roll heading into the postseason but took an unfortunate stumble against a 3-6 Shepard team in Week 9.

Pick: Sycamore

Prairie Ridge vs. Nazareth: It’s not that big of a stretch to say that this might be the most intriguing matchup of the entire 5A draw. Prairie Ridge’s enrollment number slipped the Wolves down to the 5A field after reaching the title game in 6A a year ago. The defending 5A champs from Nazareth ultimately needed to rely on the state’s strongest schedule to get them in as a 4-5 team after it had a four-game winning streak snapped by a loss to Wheaton St. Francis in Week 9.

Pick: Prairie Ridge

Glenbard South vs. Noble/UIC: Glenbard South has been sparring with Class 7A and Class 8A opponents for much of the season and fairing quite well for itself as it slides down to Class 5A for the postseason. Noble/UIC likely won’t provide much resistance as it lost its only game outside of the Chicago Public League ranks 53-0 to a team that failed to make the playoffs.

Pick: Glenbard South

Antioch vs. Englewood STEM: Antioch has been keeping a bit of a low profile this season, but its offense is anything but quiet. The Sequoits are averaging well over 50 points a game having failed to score at least 40 just once. Englewood STEM lost to all three playoff bound opponents it played and was outscored 118-20 in those three games.

Pick: Antioch

Carmel vs. Lindblom: Carmel took the next step in its ascension by winning eight games in a gauntlet of a CCL/ESCC. The Corsairs only loss came at the hands of Mount Carmel and they played and defeated four other playoff bound foes. Lindblom started 6-1 and held all six teams they beat during that stretch to six points or less.

Pick: Carmel

Morris vs. Tinley Park: Morris teetered on the fence between the Class 4A and Class 5A fields ultimately settling in the larger classification. But they are more than confident they can compete in the larger grouping especially after toppling Sycamore in Week 9 in something that wasn’t the team’s best effort. Regardless of what happens here it has been a heck of a rebound year for Tinley Park, who went 0-9 last season.

Pick: Morris

T.F. North vs. Sacred Heart-Griffin: T.F. North has had a tremendous rebound after going 1-7 in 2022, but the draw didn’t do them many favors as the Meteors have one of state’s most storied programs traveling to Calumet City. The Cyclones are still getting adjusted to not having the state’s all-time winningest coach leading them into battle as Ken Leonard retired at the conclusion of the 2022 season, but they are still a very difficult team to oust from the postseason.

Pick: Sacred Heart-Griffin

Mahomet-Seymour vs. Triad: A brief, but apparently unnecessary warning flag went up when Mahomet-Seymour dropped its season-opener to Morton but the Bulldogs quickly regrouped and rattled off seven consecutive victories before dropping a Week 9 contest to undefeated Quincy. Triad has given a lot of opposing defenses fits this season but also are prone to allowing points in bunches too.

Pick: Mahomet-Seymour

Peoria vs. Joliet Catholic: Here’s an explosive first round between two titans of the class. Peoria still has a high octane offense but might not find the ground game as effective as it has all season with Joliet Catholic’s staunch defensive front lining up against them on the other side. The Hilltoppers might need a big effort from its defense because getting in a back and forth scoring fest with Peoria might show that Joliet Catholic doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match them.

Pick: Joliet Catholic

Morton vs. Providence: It took awhile to notice what Morton was doing under first-year coach Adam O’Neill but it quickly became hard to ignore. Back-to-back quality nonconference wins over Mahomet-Seymour and Rochelle started an eight-game winning streak for the Potters which was finally snapped in Week 9 by Washington. Providence did just enough to get themselves into the playoff field, but the Celtics seem to have a knack once the calendar turns over to the postseason.

Pick: Providence

Carbondale vs. Hillcrest: Carbondale got smothered in its season opening loss to Murphysboro, but ever since the Terriers have played pretty sound football and have now won six straight. Hillcrest was probably figuring on a bit better placement in the draw, but an upset loss to Bremen in Week 9 sent them on its lengthy first round road trip.

Pick: Carbondale

Highland vs. Mount Vernon: Highland’s offense was shut out in a Week 2 loss to Mahomet-Seymour, but that only seemed to set the Bulldogs on fire as it would score 330 points over its final seven games, which were all wins. Mount Vernon was languishing a bit at 3-3 but its offense found another gear in the final third of the season as it piled up 181 points in going 3-0 down the stretch.

Pick: Highland

Metamora vs. Decatur MacArthur: Metamora seems to be entering the postseason on a wave of momentum with five consecutive victories but the Redbirds may have met their match in terms of momentum with their first round foe. MacArthur also is riding a five game winning streak which includes impressive wins over Sacred Heart-Griffin and Bloomington in Weeks 8 and 9.

Pick: Decatur MacArthur